Netanyahu's Political Legacy Hangs in the Balance as Israelis Head to the Polls

Israeli voters went to the polls on Tuesday in a high-stakes election that will test the enduring political survival of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Nearly three years after the October 7, 2023, attack led by Hamas-led militants, the divisive veteran leader faces a tight reelection race that could either cement his legacy or bring his decades-long career to a bitter end.

The election serves as a broad referendum on Netanyahu's leadership. Opponents led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot argue that Netanyahu must be held accountable for the historic security failure of October 7 and his administration's inability to translate battlefield actions into diplomatic resolutions. "Choosing a leader whose only goal is not to surrender means choosing a leader who will not deliver victories," Eisenkot said in a recent radio interview.

Conversely, Netanyahu's supporters credit him with steering the country through unprecedented regional wars against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and direct strikes involving Iran. Campaigning under the slogan "Right or Palestine," Netanyahu has warned voters that his opponents would establish a Palestinian state, a prospect heavily rejected by his main political rivals. His campaign has also leaned on a recent endorsement from President Donald Trump, with Netanyahu vowing to finish the job against Iran's nuclear program.

The trauma of the October 7 attack continues to cast a long shadow over the political landscape. The initial assault resulted in the deaths of approximately 1,200 people and the abduction of 251 hostages, all of whom have since returned through past ceasefires. Meanwhile, Israel's subsequent military response in Gaza has killed over 74,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, while displacing the population and leaving the territory devastated.

Domestic fissures have further intensified during the ongoing conflicts. Voters remain deeply divided over draft exemptions granted to ultra-Orthodox men, a policy defended by Netanyahu due to his alliances with religious parties but widely resented by a public bearing the brunt of reserve duty and combat losses. Furthermore, Netanyahu's pre-war efforts to overhaul the judicial system—which sparked mass anti-government demonstrations—remain a contentious issue, as his allies hope to revive the legal reforms.

Because Israel's electoral system relies on proportional representation, no single party typically secures an outright majority of 61 seats, forcing leaders to form coalitions. Recent opinion polls suggest a neck-and-neck race between Netanyahu's bloc and Eisenkot's coalition. With non-aligned Arab parties also campaigning strongly, political analysts predict weeks of complex negotiations that could ultimately result in a unity government or force a new round of elections early next year.