Bitcoin Holds Near $74,000 as Markets Await U.S. October CPI Data

Bitcoin is trading around $74,000 as financial markets await the release of crucial United States inflation data on Tuesday, Nov. 10. The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, is expected to provide key insights into the future trajectory of the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate.

The upcoming inflation data arrives amid growing speculation regarding potential monetary tightening. Market watchers note that the direction of the CPI will help determine the likelihood of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve. Additional economic pressures, including energy supply disruptions stemming from the recent conflict involving Iran and the financial burden of tariffs, have contributed to rising prices and fueled expectations of a possible rate hike.

In addition to the headline CPI figures, Tuesday's economic calendar features several other notable reports. The Atlanta Fed is set to release its fourth-quarter GDPNow update at 12:30 a.m. Korea Standard Time, equivalent to 10:30 a.m. Eastern Time, alongside the ADP weekly employment change report.

Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's upcoming December meeting have shifted in recent weeks. Polymarket data indicates a 77 percent probability for a 25-basis-point hike at the Fed's Dec. 9 meeting, while the probability of no change stands at 23 percent. Trading volume on the market has reached $16.8 million.

The current federal funds range sits between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent following a rate increase on Sept. 16. During the Fed's Oct. 28 meeting, officials voted 10-2 to hold rates steady, with governors Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of another hike. Following a stronger-than-expected jobs report that showed 165,000 new payrolls—roughly 2.5 times higher than forecasted—San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly remarked that further tightening will likely be necessary.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that expectations for a December rate hike climbed from 66.9 percent to 76.8 percent over the course of a week. Meanwhile, forecasts from the Cleveland Fed's nowcast project a headline CPI of 0.24 percent and a core CPI of 0.21 percent for October, figures that would represent a relatively soft inflation print.

Analysts suggest that if core inflation prints near 0.2 percent, the justification for a second rate hike across three meetings becomes much less compelling, potentially challenging current market predictions. However, a hotter-than-expected CPI report on Tuesday could quickly validate the growing consensus for monetary tightening before the year concludes.